Ukraine is fighting a new type of conflict. Every move on the battlefield is seen with electronic surveillance and satellites in real time with drones everywhere and being used by both sides. The Western alliance wanted Ukraine to push in a major assault. Surprise is no longer possible and open fields are death traps to armour and troops. This is a slug fest, artillery not tanks will be the deciding factor. This war may drag on for years or until Ukraine can find a way to bypass Russian prepared defensive positions. The summer of 2023 is going to be remembered not for Ukraine’s offensive but as the summer of attrition for both sides.
Western media keeps talking about how Ukraine is winning this war and how poorly Russia is doing. Russia is fighting this war as it always fights its wars– without giving a damn about human costs or any moral reasoning. It only knows how to pound and grind. It is always slow to get its act together and has always used troops as cannon fodder. The Russian people may not know how badly things are going, but they are Russian and this basically translates into they don’t give a damn (as long as it doesn’t touch them).
Russia has millions more possible recruits that they can press into service and Ukraine does not.
Ukraine is at its peak right now for its military numbers, and it will be much tougher for them to go out grab “new recruits”.
Ukraine will continue to be supported by the western powers, but as the war drags on into a stalemate and because Ukraine has accomplished its main goal for the west (weakening Russia to a point that it will not be able to threaten anyone, it will be forced turn its attention inwards because of internal strife caused by sanctions. The Kremlin will have to focus on holding its federation together). In another year western support will start to evaporate and pressure will be on Ukraine to make peace. Maybe giving Russia a 100 year lease on Sevastopol Naval Base and some face saving rights in the occupied regions.
Once a peace deal is signed, reconstruction of Ukraine can start. Firstly a deal to become a member of the EU (which has some joint defence language in it). However, Ukraine is just too corrupt and risky to be offered NATO membership. Maybe if Ukraine can get its act together and build relationships through the EU with its wealth of natural resources (which is why Russia wanted it). Given some time Ukraine can rise to the threshold required for becoming a member of NATO. So this should not be given away in the peace talks.
image sources
- 2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg: Viewsridge, CC BY-SA 4.0