Crimea was annexed from Ukraine by Russia in 2014. The reason given for this by Russia was to protect Russians who made up about 60% of the population (mostly do to a large Russian naval base in Sevastopol on Crimea’s SW coast). Since the annexation Russia has moved into Crimea about a million Russians who believe Putin’s dogma about Crimea belongs to Russia.
The real reason for the annexation of Crimea in 2014 was for securing their navel base and its important strategic location. With Crimea, Russia can control most of the black sea and is stepping off point for future control over the resources of Ukraine.
The problem with Crimea is that it is dependent on the mainland for water, power and most other goods. Other than its strategic military location it is a money pit. Without water (being controlled by Ukraine via a canal) it can not grow crops to even feed itself.
Russia uses all its “Federation” to enrich Moscow and St. Petersburg, while all the outliers live in poverty. To solve this Russia, who has been coveting the resources and manpower of Ukraine decided to do a bit of a land grab to secure water and resources for Crimea and Russia, the “Motherland”. On Feb 24 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in what it thought would be a quick and profitable “special military operation”.
After 9 months it has proven to be anything but quick nor profitable. Russia has shown how hollow its military really is and that it has stumbled into this war ill prepared and now has no way out.
How will it end? This is not going to be a short war but a long and bloody slug fest (as I mentioned back in March). My opinion has not changed, Russia will waste away all its resources until internal strife starts ripping their federation apart. We have seen already certain regions are openly criticising Moscow. Putin will find allies in his inner circle slipping away and even the FSB and the Wagner Group will not support him. Putin may even find his staunchest supporter Ramzan Kadyrov, Chechen leader a “even you to Brutus” friend.