Putin vs. Ukraine will be a war of attrition, with Russia having more hardware, but its ground forces not wanting to fight. While Ukraine lacks hardware, but its ground forces are willing to dig in and repel the invader. Consider the reality is in war that you need three times the troops to attack and Russia actually is attacking with only two thirds of the Ukraine numbers. Also Ukraine has 3 times the reserves ready and willing to fight. We have seen Russia’s lackluster performance from Russian forces in most of its previous invasions. It is also hard for Russia to rationalize this invasion to its troops on the ground in Ukraine. They see this for what is is– an invasion of a friendly neighbour. Will Putin have to bring in mercenaries from Syria (how will he pay them? He has not even paid his own troops for months). Will Russia beg China for military hardware and food rations? Remember China trades more with the west and is growing independent of Russian military tech.
Putin has misplayed this invasion. His own intelligence officer tried to warn him until he was publically brow beaten into agreeing with Putin (later he was arrested). His military leaders knew they could not sustain anything more than a couple of months (later many were arrested). Now Putin is purging anyone that may be a threat to him– he is that scared. He thought Ukraine would fold and the west would not step up and support Ukraine nor would the sanctions amount to much (wow, was he wrong. The US may well start sending land based harpoon anti-ship missiles to Ukraine and other high end offensive weapons). Putin thought he could win a quick war, destroying Ukraine’s military, and forcing a regime change. The only question really remaining is– Will Ukraine’s resolve hold firm while its cities are destroyed and its people are being slaughtered by an aggressor who sees only winning or his own demise.
Putin will blame everyone else to deflect any responsibility, and try to make his stalled advances as part of his plan. He will change the narrative from regime change to just protecting Russians. He will go all in on where he is strongest– Crimean Peninsula and the resource rich area of Dunbas (it is critical that Ukraine holds Mariupol).
This is more than just Russia vs Ukraine. This is about the world order for the next 50 years. China is watching, will it see a united West?
Best advice for the educated or wealthy Russians is to get out of Russia while you still can. Putin is not going to let its most talented and wealthiest citizens to leave for much longer. After all the brain drain of any nation is always a major concern.
In the long play, it is unlikely anyone will be able to dislodge Putin. There just nobody in opposition to him that is still alive or not in jail. Putin has made sure that any faction is dealt with before they have any real support. The real problem for Russia in the next few years will be the collapse of their economy, which of course Putin will blame on the West. Regional administrators will hoard resources for their own region, trade even within Russia will collapse. Will this become the threat Putin talks about for use of nuclear weapons?