Canada is now looking to replace its 4 Victoria-class submarines. They were purchased lightly used from the UK and have had a troubled history in Canada. They needed constant upgrades and repairs as all subs do (This is the cost of having subs and the public needs to understand that all subs only spend half their time operating). Canada is looking for their replacement by 2035, retiring the Victoria class after some 35 years of service. In a rather unusual move for Canada, we are not waiting, but starting to shop around now (May have been triggered by a heads-up from the Americans about their upcoming deal with Australia).
President Joe Biden has just announced a new alliance AUUKUS, which is made up of US, UK and Australia. This alliance will share AI, Cyber security, nuclear-powered submarine tech and long-range strike capabilities.
What this means is Australia’s struggling French Shortfin Barricuda Diesel submarine program is cancelled and being replaced by US offer of nuclear-powered submarines still to be assembled in Australia. Even though Australia has no nuclear infrastructure.
Will Canada participate in this American leadership group–maybe to some degree after our election. Will US/UK offer nuclear-powered submarines to Canada? Well, not likely, we are not on the front line against China (US does not have any capacity to build more than what they have presently scheduled for themselves, which leaves the UK or French subs). Although US needs allies with the ability to barricade China from expanding into the open ocean, Canada it seems, will be left out in the cold. Which may have something to do with freedom of passage through the Northwest Passage.
Canada has finally decided to explore future submarine options for our national interests. Submarines are one of the most powerful tools a nation can have for protection, information gathering and force projection. Canada has always worked with our allies and our military has been built around this fact. However, this is a changing world and nations are looking at their own interests first. Why does Canada even need blue water capable subs? A nuclear sub will cost us about $3-5 billion each while a coastal only diesel patrol sub can be had for $500-800 million. So basically a fleet of 8-10 diesel subs can be had for the cost of 1 nuclear sub. Why bother with the nuclear option? Distance, endurance and speed– which equates to a blue water, go anywhere and get there ahead of the rest of the fleet option. Coastal patrol diesel means subs will stay close to our own continental shelf and seldomly venture into the open ocean.
There are diesel subs that are made for the open ocean such as the ones Canada presently has but, they are slow, and I mean slow as in–you can run as fast as they can go.
Options for Canada are the German Type 212CD/216, Japan’s Taigei-class, Saab A26 diesel. Or are the America finally willing to let us buy UK nuclear-powered subs (that have US tech)? France may also be an option with their Barracuda- class nuclear Submarine using 5%- 235U fuel. Maybe the best option is to partner with, say Germany and convert a diesel sub design into nuclear-powered subs with Canadian built, small nuclear 50 MWth reactors or a hybrid diesel with a very small (250 kW) nuclear reactor just to recharge batteries underwater. We could then sell the reactors abroad to recoup development costs.
Canada’s other option would be to purchase a coastal only capable fleet of submarines, such as the Saab A26. These submarines are for shallower waters and have a much lower endurance, but are only a fraction of the cost. These would fit into Canada’s defense policy of “Canada First”.
The last option would be to lease newer diesel subs from either Germany, Sweden, Japan or retiring nuclear subs from Britain or the US.
If I was a betting man, I think Canada will kick the idea of new submarines around for about 5 years and then go with 6 German built AIP enabled, blue water diesel submarines. The contract should be costed out at a little over $10 billion base price plus a tech/support contract for another $10 billion to finish the builds (This costing is for offshore construction, if built in Canada double the cost and build times). By 2042 (if there are no delays, a mere 7 years past retiring the Victoria-class) Canada will have all its brand new subs doing what they were made to do–protect Canadian interests.
image sources
- HMCS_Victoria_SSK-876_near_Bangor: US Navy | Public Domain