Russia is interfering in Ukraine’s security and is looking at expanding its borders once again, or at least keeping the region unstable. First it annexed the Crimea so it could control the Black Sea. Now it wants a win using the same tactics Hitler used to “support its people and the motherland”. NATO and EU did nothing when Putin annexed Crimea and he is gambling he can do it again.
Putin believes that the West is weak and divided. That NATO will back away from helping the Ukraine. All the while, its not so secretly pouring military resources into the Donbass region of the Ukraine. Keeping the Ukraine unstable so it can influence it is likely Putins main goal and not an actual invasion.
Putin believes that the West is now focused on China, leaving it free to cause havoc in the eastern region of the Ukraine.
It is amassing military forces along their border and is warning NATO not to send help into the Ukraine. This play will show how much support there is for Ukraine in Europe. China will see that the Western Alliances are weak and it will go after Tawain and the entire South China Sea arena. This will allow Russia to extend further control over the Ukraine.
I greatly admire Putin for his ability to size up a situation and take advantage of it. This KGB Colonel learned his trade well. A little more blood on his hands, is not about to slow him down.
This newest threat by Putin against NATO and the EU, I think he has gone to far. He has overplayed his hand and given EU no choice but to strengthen or unite their militaries, while applying sanctions and finding alternate supplies of natural gas and oil. USA and Canada both would love to sell liquified natural gas to the EU and UK. With the growth of electric cars etc., less fossil fuels will be needed. If Putin cannot sell oil and natural gas to the EU, Russian influence and economy will collapse. The bigger question is always, who really needs who the most.
image sources
- Russo-ukrainian-conflict: Niele | CC BY-SA 4.0