Xi Jinping was General Secretary of the CCP and Chairman of the Central Military Commission. This made Xi basically the dictator of China. He rose to power on an anti-corruption platform and used it to get rid of all his rivals. Recent poor health and bad policies has led to a quite overthrow and the replacement of Xi’s strongest supporters. The Elders who are made up of the retired old guard which usually only helped to guide policy (before Xi), have risen up against Xi because they feared a total collapse of the CCP. They have backed Zhang Youxia as head of the military and we will have to wait till Sept. 2025 to know for sure who the rest of the players are. The new leaders have agreed to share power among the different factions.
China’s economy was heading for a major downturn, with the collapse of real estate values, mega projects that were not fiscally responsible, and his “wolf warrior”, attitude towards the West. Without western markets China’s growth could not be sustained and massive unemployment would cause civil unrest.
China was on a collision course with the United States and although on paper China looked strong, in reality it was just not “holding the cards” for a winning hand. China was bluffing about how strong it was and how advanced it had become. China has built an aircraft carrier with a catapult system that nobody has ever seen launch a single fighter. China export of high tech military equipment has been dismal, but now that Russia is collapsing, I am sure China’s exports of military hardware will boom. This is not to say everything in Chinese military is garbage, it is not. It is just that they have a lot of holes that still need to be fixed. The United States has been involved in wars all over the world since WW2 and is ready for a fight, while the same can not be said for China.
With the removal of Xi as dictator and the return to a policy of reform and opening up of China, the USA has been in secret negotiations with China and the general idea is that the US will lower tariffs to 20% and that China will open up for investments in industries that China has open for investment in the US. That Chinese companies that are state controlled will open up their books and level the playing field (no more unfair subsidies). Lastly China has to allow US social media giants into China since the US allows TikTok in the US.
This should calm the waters around Taiwan and stop the backdoor attacks that China has been doing using Fentanyl, Russian oil/arms, and nuclear support in Iran as weapons against its best customer… the West.
image sources
- Xi_Jinping_(2024)_(cropped): https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Xi_Jinping_(2024)_(cropped).jpg | Public Domain Mark 1.0